Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 0.310802 0.352565 0.397892 0.450749 0.510710 0.576636 0.654648
2025-10-05 0.255677 0.312329 0.378493 0.461506 0.562956 0.683012 0.836058
2025-10-12 0.208300 0.271987 0.351437 0.457924 0.597109 0.773146 1.013214
2025-10-19 0.174695 0.242581 0.332588 0.460823 0.639204 0.879160 1.227564
2025-10-26 0.150865 0.221816 0.321368 0.471506 0.692839 1.008205 1.493733
2025-11-02 0.124397 0.192855 0.294088 0.455048 0.705495 1.081968 1.694116
2025-11-09 0.101804 0.165815 0.265216 0.431252 0.702953 1.132328 1.867128
2025-11-16 0.086713 0.147933 0.247471 0.421630 0.720470 1.215524 2.104602
2025-11-23 0.074188 0.132195 0.230665 0.410638 0.733561 1.292790 2.343890
2025-11-30 0.067067 0.124547 0.226205 0.419875 0.782461 1.437497 2.723289
2025-12-07 0.057586 0.111163 0.209630 0.404675 0.784712 1.499110 2.959918
2025-12-14 0.050649 0.101444 0.198276 0.397338 0.800257 1.586950 3.259641
2025-12-21 0.044316 0.092148 0.186784 0.388824 0.813939 1.676671 3.585571
2025-12-28 0.041018 0.088456 0.185773 0.401328 0.872359 1.864999 4.148481
2026-01-04 0.036873 0.082345 0.178923 0.400540 0.902732 2.000098 4.620813
2026-01-11 0.033671 0.077783 0.174673 0.404758 0.944833 2.167224 5.194683
2026-01-18 0.031319 0.074762 0.173345 0.415370 1.003256 2.380135 5.913105
2026-01-25 0.027589 0.067943 0.162398 0.401753 1.002413 2.455786 6.313114
2026-02-01 0.023937 0.060742 0.149496 0.381357 0.981750 2.480755 6.590793
2026-02-08 0.021459 0.056072 0.142001 0.373271 0.990794 2.580626 7.080936
2026-02-15 0.019212 0.051641 0.134449 0.363841 0.994835 2.668417 7.554680
2026-02-22 0.018072 0.049952 0.133653 0.372226 1.048057 2.894112 8.451651
2026-03-01 0.016088 0.045666 0.125401 0.358915 1.039180 2.950159 8.873585